Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC at Critical Support Ahead of Jackson Hole. Will Bulls Hold $115K?

Bitcoin is heading into a make-or-break stretch. After topping out above $124,000, the market has cooled off and slipped into a choppy consolidation phase. 

Prices are sitting below $118,500 and under the 7-day moving average. This is enough to tilt short-term momentum bearish. The MACD histogram has flipped red, and RSI around 47 leaves room for more downside, though we’re not in oversold territory yet.

Key levels to watch

• Immediate resistance: $118,000–$118,500. A clean push above here would be the first sign that bulls are trying to take back control.
• Major resistance: $124,000 (the recent ATH). Break it on strong volume, and the door opens toward $125,000–$128,500.
• Immediate support: $115,800–$116,000. Lose this, and sellers may press harder.
• Major support: $114,000–$115,000. This is the line in the sand for the current bullish structure. If it cracks, a slide to $110,000 or even $100,000 comes back into play.

Technical picture

• RSI: Sitting near 47. Neutral for now, but with room to fall before dipping into oversold territory (under 30). Translation: there’s space for more downside before buyers might step in.
• MACD: Momentum has turned bearish. The histogram is in the red, and the crossover confirms short-term weakness.

Macro and sentiment

Outside crypto, the backdrop isn’t helping. Hotter U.S. PPI data has cooled hopes for fast rate cuts, pushing investors into a “risk-off” mood. Risk assets, Bitcoin included, are feeling the pinch. On top of that, the Coinbase Premium Gap has flipped negative. Meaning U.S. institutions are likely selling into this market, not buying.

The big wildcard this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 22–23). Fed Chair Jerome Powell,  likely giving his final speech as Fed Chair,  will be the headline act. Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in September, but Powell’s tone on the speed and depth of rate cuts could decide whether risk assets like Bitcoin rally or stumble.

Volume and volatility

Trading activity has dried up a bit, which is typical during consolidation. Don’t expect it to stay quiet for long: a spike in volume will likely mark the next big move. Volatility is still high, with wide daily swings suggesting whales and algos are steering short-term price action.

Scenarios for the Week Ahead

• Bullish case: Reclaim $118,500, then re-test $124,000. If that level breaks, a run toward $128,000 isn’t out of the question.
• Bearish case: Fail to hold $115,000, and things could unravel quickly. Watch $112,500 and $110,000 as possible bounce zones.

Bottom line

After topping $124,000, Bitcoin slid into a consolidation phase and broke below key supports. The MACD is in the red, and sellers clearly have the upper hand for now.

 Hold it, and bulls have a shot at bouncing back toward $118,500 and eventually retesting $124,000. Lose it, and the chart opens up room for a deeper correction, think $110,000, maybe even $100,000 if things snowball.  Trading activity has thinned out, and without conviction from either side, the market’s drifting. A breakout or breakdown on heavy volume will be the confirmation signal traders are waiting for.

 Some see this pullback as a healthy reset in a bigger uptrend; others warn that a crack under $115,000 could flip the whole structure bearish. Either way, the next decisive move is likely to set the tone for the rest of the month. 

With volumes light and traders waiting for a catalyst, the market is drifting,  but not for long. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later this week could be the spark that decides whether Bitcoin breaks higher or tumbles lower.

Keep updated with the latest market moves by tracking BTC or setting alerts in TabTrader.

👉Want to learn more about Technical analysis? Start here:  

1. Candlestick charts.

2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Explained

3. How to Use Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)

4. What are Higher Highs and Lower Lows?

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