Bitcoin Eyes $120K: Breakout or Breakdown? (July 28, 2025)

Key takeaways: 

• Bitcoin’s charts are leaning cautiously optimistic. The price action’s been steady this past week. 
• The $115K–$116K zone has been a rock-solid demand area lately, with buyers stepping in fast on dips. 
• Bitcoin is hovering near $119K and holding within a rising trend channel. Generally, a good sign for bullish momentum.
• Bitcoin’s bigger picture is still bullish, but this coming week is a bit of a pressure test.

Where things stand now

Bitcoin is hovering near $119K and holding within a rising trend channel. Generally, a good sign for bullish momentum. It’s already cleared resistance around $107,700, hit its $115,700 target, and now sits just shy of that psychological $120K barrier.

Levels to watch this week

• Support: The $115K–$116K zone has been a rock-solid demand area lately, with buyers stepping in fast on dips. A deeper fallback could find support near $112K.
• Resistance: The big hurdle is $120.5–$122K. Break that cleanly with strong volume, and $123K or even $125K isn’t far-fetched. A stronger push could see $128K–$130K come into play.

What the indicators are saying

• EMAs: Bitcoin’s trading above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, classic bullish structure, so long as it stays over $115K.
• RSI: The RSI’s been slipping a bit, hinting at potential cooling, but it’s not oversold or flashing danger. Mixed signals here: some readings are neutral, others are still bullish.
• MACD: On lower timeframes, MACD momentum has softened (a bearish cross just happened), but zoom out and the bigger picture remains bullish.
• Volume: Price and volume haven’t lined up perfectly, which can sometimes hint at weakening trends, but there’s still plenty of participation when Bitcoin bounces.

Possible scenarios for the week

• Bullish case: A clean break above $120K–$122K could fire up new buying, opening the door to $125K and beyond. Some traders even expect a quick dip to $116K (a liquidity grab) before ripping higher.
• Consolidation/pullback: If short-term weakness sticks, expect more ranging between $115K–$120K. A break below $115K might drag it down toward $112K–$113.8K.
• Risk: Lose $116K decisively, and the correction deepens. That’s the line in the sand most traders are watching.

Bottom line

Bitcoin’s bigger picture is still bullish, but this week’s a bit of a pressure test. If it can finally break that $120K ceiling with conviction, things get interesting fast.  If not, we’re probably in for a few more days of sideways chop before the next big move. One key important event to watch out for is the July 29–30 FOMC meeting. A surprise cut could ignite a crypto rally, while delays might pressure Bitcoin’s recent $118K highs.

CTA: Keep updated with the latest market moves by tracking BTC or setting alerts in TabTrader.

👉Want to learn more about Technical analysis? Start here:  

1. Candlestick charts.

2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Explained

3. How to Use Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)

4. What are Higher Highs and Lower Lows?

Important Note: TabTrader does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice, and you are solely responsible for determining whether any financial transaction strategy or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, economic circumstances, and risk tolerance. Tab Trader may provide information that includes but is not limited to blog posts, articles, podcasts, tutorials, and videos. The information contained therein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and you should not treat any of the content as such. TabTrader does not recommend that any digital asset should be bought, earned, sold, lent out, or held by you, and will not be held responsible for the decisions you make.