Bitcoin Technical Recap - Tense, Teetering, and Testing $107k (June 16,2025)

Key takeaway:

As of mid-June 2025, Bitcoin’s chart paints a picture of cautious indecision. Price action has cooled from May’s euphoric high, and while the longer-term trend still leans bullish, the markets are waiting for a decisive push.

Current position and key price levels

Bitcoin is hovering in the $105,000 to $107,600 range after pulling back from its record high of $111,891 set last month. That correction has brought it back into a critical support zone. What happens here may set the tone for the rest of the year.

Support to watch

• $105K–$104K: This zone has held up so far, and bulls are fighting to keep it that way.
• $102,300 (200-day EMA): A technical backstop that's proven reliable in past pullbacks.
• $100K: A psychological line. A clean break below here could invite serious selling pressure.
• Below $100K: If things unravel further, look toward $98K or even $92K as the next landing zone.

Resistance to clear:

• Near-term: $106,750 to $107,500 is the first hurdle. Trading on Monday 16th realised a price of $107, 196 before pulling back.

Major: $110K to $112K, the post-ATH battleground. Reclaiming this range with conviction is key to reigniting the uptrend.

Technical indicators in focus

Moving Averages

• On short timeframes, BTC is stuck below key EMAs (20, 50, 100), signaling short-term weakness.
• On daily/weekly charts, the broader trend remains intact. The 50- and 200-day MAs are still rising and sitting under price. Bullish, but with a caveat: they’re getting tested.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Short-term RSI hovers near neutral, sometimes dipping into oversold territory (~28). That hints at potential bounce conditions but nothing is confirmed until it breaks back above 50.

MACD

Momentum is shaky. MACD lines are flat or leaning negative on several timeframes. A bullish crossover would help, but we're not there yet.

Chart and pattern watch

Range bound consolidation

Bitcoin’s moving sideways between $100K and $112K. It could be accumulation. It could be distribution. Either way, the breakout or breakdown will likely be sharp.

Fractal repeats

Some analysts are eyeing earlier-year fractals where BTC broke down after failing to hold highs. A déjà vu setup could be forming.

Elliott wave

If you're into wave theory, some see us in a “Wave C” decline after a completed “Wave B” bounce. That would mean more downside. Potentially a third test of support around $100K, which historically either holds or cracks decisively.

Three possible scenarios for late June

1. The bearish break

 If Bitcoin loses the $104K–$105K zone and especially if it drops below $100K, watch for a possible flush toward $98K or even $92K. That would spook retail and test even the stronger hands.

2. The bullish reclaim

Reclaiming $107,500 would be step one. Then, a breakout above $110K–$112K (with solid volume) would set the stage for a run toward $115K–$120K. If momentum picks up, maybe fueled by a Fed rate cut or easing geopolitical tension, $125K isn’t out of the question. But that’s a big “if.”

3. Sideways chop 

This is the most likely scenario. A consolidation between $100K and $112K seems the most probable short-term outcome. It’s the classic “wait-and-see” mode while traders digest recent volatility, macro data, and ETF flows.

Other factors to watch closely

• Macro risk: More saber-rattling in global politics? Escalation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict? That’s going to move crypto.
• Fed signals: Markets are hanging on every word from the FOMC right now. So watch out for the next FOMC meeting for June 17–18.
• ETF flows: Institutional money remains a key driver. Keep an eye on net inflows or outflows.
• Volume: No major move means anything without volume. A breakout on weak volume is a fakeout waiting to happen. 

We’ll monitor key crypto metrics and share a fresh update following Monday, June 23, 2025.

Keep updated with the latest market moves by tracking BTC or setting alerts in TabTrader.

Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly; the prices and trends reported here, including those sourced from CoinMarketCap.com and other references, may not reflect real-time values at the time of reading.

Important Note: TabTrader does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice, and you are solely responsible for determining whether any financial transaction strategy or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, economic circumstances, and risk tolerance. TabTrader may provide information that includes but is not limited to blog posts, articles, podcasts, tutorials, and videos. The information contained therein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and you should not treat any of the content as such. TabTrader does not recommend that any digital asset should be bought, earned, sold, lent out, or held by you, and will not be held responsible for the decisions you.