2025 Crypto Year in Review: The Year Technicals Beat Narratives

When Bitcoin finally punched through $100,000 in December 2024, it felt like a line in the sand. A moment people would talk about for years. Then in May 2025,  BTC peaked at $126,000, and the market delivered its usual reminder: stories don't drive price; price drives stories. That is the line between trading and gambling, and 2025 made it painfully clear.

History will likely tag 2025 as the year of the “Institutional Super Cycle.” Fair enough. But for anyone actually trading the market, it was the year technical analysis quietly did its job while everyone else chased headlines. Ethereum’s “Pectra” upgrade. The U.S. “GENIUS Act.” Big narratives, loud opinions. Meanwhile, the charts were already leaning in the right direction weeks before the crowd caught on.

This review is a breakdown of how the year really unfolded. Four distinct phases, each with its own tells. We’ll walk through the tools that flagged the Q1 breakout, warned of the $126k blow-off top, navigated the regulatory summer flush, and explain why Q4 has felt more like a grind than a sprint. The goal is pattern recognition, which you can actually use next time.

Key takeaways

• Big events throughout the year showed traders that charts were already leaning in the right direction weeks before the crowd caught on.
• If you learn one thing from 2025, let it be this: When price makes a higher high, but RSI makes a lower high, the trend is about to reverse.
• Looking into 2026, the monthly charts are signaling a potential "Super Cycle" continuation, provided we hold the $85k support levels.

Phase 1: The Q1 breakout (the "Pectra" rally)

The year began with palpable optimism. The delayed effects of the 2024 Halving were finally kicking in, and the Ethereum community was buzzing about the upcoming "Pectra" (Prague-Electra) upgrade. The fundamental thesis was sound, but the entry signal  was a crossover on the daily chart.

The tool: Moving averages (The golden cross)

For intermediate traders, the trend is your only friend. The most reliable signal of the massive Q1 run-up was the Golden Cross.

• What is it? A Golden Cross occurs when a short-term moving average (like the 50-day SMA) crosses above a long-term moving average (like the 200-day SMA).
• The 2025 signal: In late 2024, BTC/USD hovered in the $70k-$80k range. Frustration was high. But on the daily chart, the 50-day SMA curled upward and crossed the 200-day SMA with conviction.
• Lesson for traders: Many beginners waited for Bitcoin to break $100k before buying, driven by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Smart traders bought the Golden Cross  at $85k weeks earlier.

Pro tip: Don't use Moving Averages to guess the exact top. Use them as dynamic support. During the Q1 rally, notice how the price often dipped but bounced perfectly off the 50-day SMA? That is your signal to hold the trade. As long as the price closes above the trendline, the trend remains intact.

Phase 2: The $126k top (Mid-year euphoria)

By May, the "Super Cycle" theory was mainstream. Your Uber driver was asking about Altcoins. Bitcoin hit its All-Time High (ATH) of $126,400. The news was overwhelmingly bullish, with record institutional inflows. Yet, this was exactly the moment to sell because the momentum was dying behind the scenes.

The tool: RSI and bearish divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100.

• Overbought: RSI > 70
• Oversold: RSI < 30

The 2025 Signal: Bearish divergence. This is the single most powerful reversal signal in trading.

• The price: Bitcoin made a high at $120k, pulled back, and then pushed to a higher high at $126k.
• The RSI: The RSI made a high, pulled back, and then made a lower high on that second push.

Tip for traders: the price was going up, but the strength behind that move was going down. This "divergence" between price and momentum signaled that the buyers were exhausted. While the news outlets celebrated $126k, the RSI divergence screamed "EXIT NOW."

If you learn one thing from 2025, let it be this: When price makes a higher high, but RSI makes a lower high, the trend is about to reverse.

Phase 3: The "GENIUS act" correction (Q3 volatility)

July brought the "Summer Freeze." The passing of the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins) was ultimately a bullish regulatory milestone. 

However, short-term uncertainty about stablecoin issuer licenses sparked panic. BTC crashed from $126k down to the mid-$80k.

Retail traders panicked and sold at the bottom. Technical traders had their limit orders waiting there for weeks.

The tool: Fibonacci retracements

Markets do not move in straight lines; they breathe. Fibonacci retracements help us identify where the price is likely to stop falling and bounce.

• The setup: You draw the Fib tool from the Swing Low (the start of the Q1 rally, approx $60k) to the Swing High ($126k).
• The magic number: The 0.618 (The Golden Ratio) and the 0.5 (50% retracement) levels.
• The 2025 signal: During the Q3 panic, Bitcoin dropped precisely to the 0.5 Fibonacci level (around $93,000) and wicked down to the 0.618 in the deeper flush.

Lesson for traders: Instead of staring at red candles and panicking, you can use "Fibs" to map out your buy zones in advance.

• Don't buy a green candle.
• Do set limit buy orders at the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels.

Visual note: If you look at the chart from August 2025, you will see a long "wick" rejecting exactly off the Fibonacci support. That wick represents smart money stepping in while retail money stepped out.

Phase 4: Sector spotlight (AI and RWAs)

While Bitcoin consolidated in late Q3, the real alpha was found in sectors like AI Agents and Real World Assets (RWAs). This is where we saw the concept of "Rotation."

The tool: Volume profile and support to resistance flips

How did traders spot which AI coin was going to run? They looked for the S/R Flip.

• Resistance: A price ceiling where sellers are aggressive.
• Support: A price floor where buyers are aggressive.

The 2025 Signal: Let's look at the top-performing RWA token of the year. For months, it struggled to break $5.00 (Resistance). When it finally broke through in September, it didn't go straight to $10.00. It came back down to test $5.00.

• The flip: When it tested $5.00, it didn't break below that level below. Buyers stepped in, turning old Resistance into new Support

Lesson for traders: Volume precedes price. When looking at a breakout, check the volume bars at the bottom of your chart.

• Fakeout: Price breaks resistance, but volume is low/declining. (Trap!)
• Breakout: Price breaks resistance with a massive spike in green volume. (Real move!)

Phase 5: The Q4 consolidation

Here we are in December. The "GENIUS Act" dust has settled, the holidays are approaching, and Bitcoin is ranging between $85,000 and $100,000. The volatility has vanished. This is boring, but "boring" is where the next trade is born.

The tool: Bollinger bands and the squeeze

Bollinger Bands consist of a simple moving average with two standard deviation lines plotted above and below it. They visualize volatility.

The signal: The squeeze. Right now, if you pull up the BTC/USD Weekly chart, you will see the upper and lower bands pinching together tightly. This is called a Bollinger Squeeze.

• What it means: The market is like a coiled spring. Energy is being stored.
• What comes next: Expansion. A massive move is imminent as we head into 2026.

Lesson for traders: Do not trade inside the squeeze; the chop will eat your profits. Wait for the bands to start widening and for price to close outside of the bands. That is your signal for the start of the 2026 trend.

Risk management: The unsung hero

The saddest stories of 2025 weren't the people who didn't buy; they were the people who bought the top of the Q2 euphoria with 50X leverage and got liquidated in the Q3 flush.

Technical Analysis tells you when to buy. Risk Management tells you how much to buy.

1. Position sizing: Never risk more than 1-2% of your total account on a single trade. If you have a $10,000 account, a losing trade should cost you $100, not $5,000.
2. Stop losses: A stop loss is not an admission of defeat; it is an insurance policy. It protects your capital so you can play the next hand.
3. Risk/Reward(R:R): Only take trades with a 1:2 or 1:3 ratio. If you risk $1 to make $3, you can be wrong 60% of the time and still be profitable.

Bottom Line: the setup for 2026

2025 was a masterclass in market psychology and technical structure.

• Q1 taught us to trust the trend (Moving Averages).
• Q2 taught us to spot exhaustion (RSI Divergence).
• Q3 taught us patience (Fibonacci Retracements).
• Q4 is teaching us discipline (Bollinger Squeeze).

As we look toward 2026, the monthly charts are signaling a potential "Super Cycle" continuation, provided we hold the $85k support levels. The institutional infrastructure is now fully built. The regulations are clear. The charts are coiling.

What’s next?

 Open your trading view. Pull up the Weekly BTC/USD chart. Apply the Bollinger Bands indicator. Set an alert for when price breaks the upper or lower band. That alert will likely be your first big trade of 2026.

From the Tabtrader team, here’s to a profitable new year. Trade safe.

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