Bitcoin Technical Recap: Why BTC Hit $111K and What Comes Next (May 26, 2025)

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s been on an exciting ride, setting an all-time high of $111,970 on May 22nd.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high of $111,970 driven by institutional demand, regulatory tailwinds, and ETF inflows.
• The crypto market rallied as trade talks between the U.S. and China reduced global economic uncertainty.
• Technical indicators continue to support a bullish outlook, despite short-term cooling.

Bitcoin began the week at nearly $106,000, quickly climbing above $109,000 by May 20. The highlight came on May 22 when Bitcoin surged to just $112,000. However, a swift correction followed, with prices dipping to around $107,000 by May 23. Since then, it has stabilized between $108,000 and $109,000.

Let’s break down the key reasons behind this rally.

1. The US Dollar is slipping, and markets are paying attention

Source: Marketwatch

The U.S. Dollar Index dipped to around 98.5, marking its fourth straight daily drop. It's not exactly a free fall, but it's enough to turn heads. The slide comes as worries over America’s fiscal health rattle investor confidence.

Adding fuel to the fire? 

A weak 20-year Treasury auction that landed with a thud. The lackluster demand sent a clear signal: investors aren’t lining up for U.S. debt as they used to. That’s not a great look when you’re trying to finance a growing deficit.

A weaker dollar, of course, has ripple effects. For starters, it makes commodities cheaper for buyers using other currencies. That’s helped drive up prices of oil, metals, and other raw materials. 

At the same time, some investors are stepping away from traditional assets and looking elsewhere, which helps explain why both Bitcoin and gold have been hitting new highs.

Still, it’s not all sunshine. Rising yields and long-term fiscal concerns are putting a drag on equities and corporate bonds. Risk appetite isn’t gone, but it’s more selective. Investors are getting pickier, and who can blame them?

2. Institutional demand is heating up, and it's moving the market

If there’s one thing really fueling Bitcoin’s current rally, it’s the surge in institutional interest. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have been racking up steady inflows, not just in bursts, but day after day. 

This kind of consistent, large-scale buying isn’t just symbolic. It creates real, sustained demand that helps prop up prices and adds a layer of stability that wasn’t there during past retail-driven booms. In short, institutional accumulation isn’t just a trend. It’s becoming the backbone of this rally.

Michael Saylor is setting the mood, tweeting: "I only buy Bitcoin with money I can't afford to lose.”

Technical analysis: what’s next for Bitcoin?

After the recent all-time high, Bitcoin is taking a breather. Momentum has cooled off by about 38%, which isn’t unusual. Markets don’t climb in straight lines, and a pause here is more of a cooldown than a cause for alarm.

Since those highs, we’ve seen some mild consolidation and a bit of retracement. Still, the broader story remains intact: institutional demand is holding firm, and corporate buyers haven’t slowed down either.

Technical indicator analysis

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently hovering around 67 and ticking up. The bulls are still in control, but we’re edging toward the overbought zone (above 70). If RSI starts diverging from price, that’s usually a red flag for a potential short-term reversal.

Moving Averages:  Bitcoin comfortably trades above key short- and medium-term moving averages. That’s a good sign that buyers are still in control, and the trend remains upward.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Daily MACD is converging, which often signals a period of indecision. This could mean more sideways action before the next breakout or breakdown.

Volume trends: Volume has been solid on up days and lighter on pullbacks, which typically supports a bullish case. Still, some short-term charts show fading volume, sometimes a precursor to a bigger move, up or down.

Potential Bitcoin price scenarios for the next 7 days

1. Continued rally: If Bitcoin decisively clears the $108,600–$111,000 zone with strong volume, the next stop could be $115,000 and beyond. Institutional inflows and corporate interest remain key drivers.
2. Sideways drift or mild pullback: If momentum stalls or the RSI flashes warning signs, we could see a pause or a drop back toward $107,000. Failing to hold there might send Bitcoin revisiting $100,000 support.
3. Deeper correction (less likely, but possible): A sharp break below $100K could open the door to the $92K–$95K range. This would likely require a broader market risk-off move or a negative macro shock.

We’ll monitor tariff activity and the market and share a fresh update following Monday, June 2, 2025.

Keep updated with the latest market moves by tracking BTC or setting alerts in TabTrader.

🚨 Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly; the prices and trends reported here, including those sourced from CoinMarketCap.com and other references, may not reflect real-time values at the time of reading.

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