Crypto Market Weekly Outlook: Narrative Shifts to Geopolitical Risks(Feb. 23)

Key takeaways

• Capital continues rotating out of high-beta altcoins into defensive assets: Bitcoin dominance climbs to ~58%, with inflows favoring BTC and stablecoins.
• In the next few weeks, the main focus will be on whether the market can find a bottom after falling 40% from its all-time highs.

Market Overview: Macros loom large

Looking at the bigger picture, we are currently in the slow, cautious part of the market cycle. For most investors, the goal is to protect the money rather than aggressively chase new profits.

What’s most clear is that the dominant narrative has shifted. This is in contrast to a few months ago, when the consensus centered on a soft landing. Now, the focus is on geopolitical tensions and trade policy risks.

New trade tariffs and ongoing inflation have changed the mood. The Fed has mentioned possible rate cuts later this year, but markets are still unsure. Energy prices are unstable, and trade issues make predictions harder. Because of these factors, the crypto market has dropped to $2.28 trillion, mostly due to big-picture economic trends.

Risk sentiment and crypto impact

The Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 14 (Extreme Fear). While extreme fear can sometimes signal a good time to buy, the index has been stuck here for weeks, showing that investors are deeply cautious.

As we head into the last week of February, money is moving out of altcoins and back into Bitcoin, which now holds 57.97% of the market, as well as into stablecoins.

Bitcoin

Mirroring last week's outlook, Bitcoin is stuck in an awkward spot. For a while, the narrative leaned toward digital gold. However, given the recent price movements, it’s trading more like a tech stock.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin isn’t showing a clear direction. The price is moving sideways, not strongly overbought or oversold. This usually means the market is consolidating instead of facing heavy selling.

What’s the short-term Bitcoin outlook?

The short-term outlook is Neutral. Expect sideways movement between $65K and $70K unless a macro catalyst forces expansion.  Without strong participation, $70,000 behaves like overhead supply.

A brief push above it wouldn’t be surprising because thin liquidity makes fake breakouts common in this phase. If buyers don’t follow through quickly, a retest of lower supports remains on the table. For now, this is a range trader’s market. Breakout traders will need patience.

Key levels

• Resistance: $67,500 (Immediate) $69,000–$70,000 (major psychological & supply zone)
• Support: $64,000  to $65,000.

Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Hovering around 40  which means the market isn’t oversold or overbought. This suggests prices may keep moving sideways.
• MACD: Showing a slight bullish crossover on the 4H chart, but the daily remains under pressure.

Ethereum

Ethereum is struggling to keep up with Bitcoin and is weak below $1,900. The ETH/BTC ratio keeps dropping and hasn’t stabilized. ETH is trading under $2,000, down over 4% this week.

Compared to other Layer 1 networks like Solana, ETH looks heavy. Capital has leaned toward Bitcoin’s “hard asset” positioning rather than Ethereum’s utility-driven narrative. In a higher-rate environment, investors tend to prefer perceived monetary assets over growth-style platforms. ETH sits in the middle of that spectrum, which hasn’t helped.

Key levels

The $1,800–$2,300 range matters. A clean break below $1,800 would likely accelerate selling pressure and open the door to the 2024 lows. On the upside, reclaiming and holding above $2,300 would at least signal that buyers are willing to defend structure.  On the upside, reclaiming and holding above $2,300 would at least signal that buyers are willing to defend structure.

At the moment, ETH doesn’t have momentum on its side. Until that changes, it trades as a laggard rather than a leader.

Major altcoin sector overview

Layer 1 tokens

Solana continues to show relative resilience. It’s not rising higher, but it’s defending levels. Cardano surprised with a modest bounce, though follow-through remains questionable. The group as a whole is trying to stabilize rather than expand.

DeFi

Protocols like Aave and Uniswap are trading heavily. Total Value Locked isn’t collapsing, but growth has flattened. With Treasury yields offering competitive returns and lower volatility, some capital has simply stepped away.

Gaming and AI tokens

 Names tied to the AI and gaming narrative have been the most sensitive to swings in tech equities. When the Nasdaq Composite wobbles, these tokens tend to wobble harder. They were leaders during the hype cycle. Now they’re absorbing the unwind.

Altcoin sector summary

Speculative excess is being drained from the system. Layer 1s are attempting to carve out local floors. The higher-beta themes are still leaking capital as enthusiasm in tech equities cools. This stage isn’t dramatic. Slow declines are testing investors’ patience more than causing panic.

Market  sentiment

• Fear/Greed Index: 14 (Extreme Fear). Historically, this is the "Buy when there's blood" zone, but the index has stayed low for weeks, indicating a deep-seated caution.
• BTC Dominance: BTC Dominance: 57.9%. This shows that money is moving from riskier altcoins into Bitcoin.

Key market events to watch this week

• Feb 25 – U.S. Q4 GDP (Economic growth data): The update is less about the headline number and more about the trend. If growth is revised up, markets may expect rate cuts later, adding pressure to risk assets. A weaker revision could ease some of that pressure, at least for now.
• Feb 25 (NVIDIA earnings): NVIDIA will report its quarterly earnings on Wednesday. This is an important event for people involved in crypto and AI.
• Feb 27 Core PCE Price Index: This is the inflation number the Federal Reserve watches most. Expect market swings when it’s released. If it’s higher than expected, financial conditions tighten. If it’s lower, risk markets may get a boost. This is the key data to watch.

Possible scenarios for the coming week

Bearish case

If the Core PCE is higher than expected, rate cuts will likely be delayed. In that case, Bitcoin could fall below $64,000 and drop quickly toward the $58,000–$60,000 range. That area was a support before, but it hasn’t been tested in tougher conditions. A quick move down could bring more volatility and forced selling.

Neutral case

In this case, Bitcoin dominance tends to grind higher as capital shifts away from higher-beta altcoins. Expect low conviction moves and quick reversals at the edges of the range.

Bullish case

A softer PCE print would shift expectations back toward rate cuts. If buyers reclaim $72,500 with volume, short positioning above that level could unwind quickly. That opens the door to $80,000. Follow-through matters; without sustained demand, upside moves fade just as fast as they appear.

At this stage, the macro print drives the first move. The reaction after the first hour will matter more than the headline itself.

FAQ

Q: Where is Bitcoin headed this week?

Bitcoin's short-term outlook is neutral, trading between $64,000 and $70,000. A hotter-than-expected Core PCE print on Feb. 27 could push BTC down to $58,000–$60,000, while a softer reading opens the door to $80,000.

Q: Why is the crypto market dropping in 2026?

A combination of new trade tariffs, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tensions has shifted market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 (Extreme Fear), and the total crypto market cap has fallen to $2.28 trillion, down 40% from all-time highs.

Q: Is now a good time to buy crypto?

Current signals favor patience over aggression. Capital is rotating out of altcoins into Bitcoin and stablecoins, with Bitcoin dominance at ~58%. Smart money is accumulating BTC and ETH slowly at these levels, but no clear bottom has been confirmed yet.

Bottom line

The coming weeks will be all about  looking for the market to find a floor after the recent 40% drawdown from the all-time highs. For now, the Smart Money is sitting on hands or slowly accumulating BTC/ETH at these discount levels.

Don’t try to predict the market. React to what actually happens. Set up your alerts on TabTrader and let the price come to you.

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